An emerging narrative is that monetary policy will take a backseat as the primary focus of the sovereign debt markets. It is perhaps beginning to be replaced by what is happening with budgets and national debts. Yesterday long dated Japanese debt sold off in dramatic fashion as the yield on its 30-year obligation almost broached … Read more
The six biggest banks are scheduled to release second quarter results this week. The trading operations are expected to stand out. Will there be any comments about the impact of the tariffs on their customers’ margins which will in turn will impact debt service requirements? Will there be increases in loan loss reserves in anticipation … Read more
Is a rotation occurring in the markets? At casual glance it appears some are taking profits in the companies that have performed best during the first six months of the year and buying the laggards from that same period. Bloomberg writes the biggest gainer thus far in July has been energy, which was the first … Read more
The markets are around where they were immediately after the election. Is this poetic justice as there were some who predicted the end of the world as we know it and continued to say the strangest things imaginable are being rebuked to those who swore of certain messianic achievements? On the surface it appeared that … Read more
There has been considerable attention focused on the narrowness of the advance from its April lows. Bloomberg writes the breadth is the worst on record going back to 1972, an ominous sign pointing to the massive concentration of wealth in a handful of companies, rising concern that any selloff could be potentially brutal for the … Read more
Equites declined and the dollar rose on a potentially volatile week as US trading partners attempt to finalize deals. Emerging market currencies slid as the President warned he will add additional tariffs on any country that align with “the anti-American policies of BRICS.” The Administration did signal however that trading partners may have until August … Read more
Job growth exceeded expectations in June for a fourth straight month, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined, crushing expectations of a July rate cut. The chance of a September rate cut was reduced to about 75%. Payrolls increased 147,000 after slight upward revision to the prior two months and compared with a median forecast of … Read more
The ADP Private Sector Employment Survey posted a negative reading for the first time in more than two years, reflecting a drop in service payrolls. None of the economists surveyed expected this former top tier indicator to post negative jobs growth. The data, however, is not as bad as it appears as the negative reading … Read more
FRB Chair Powell stated yesterday that the Central Bank expects the inflationary aspects of the tariffs will be felt later in the year. Powell also commented the FOMC probably would have cut rates further this year absent the threat/use of tariffs. When the Fed Chief was asked about a July reduction, he did not rule … Read more
Welcome to the second half of 2025. In less than one calendar quarter, we have seen the perhaps the most insane public policy announcement in years (“Liberation Day”), a massive market collapse from such, a complete policy reversal, a massive market reversal, an Israel-Iran flare-up that appears to have lasted twelve days, an oil spike, … Read more
