Equities were initially nominally lower ahead of today’s outcome of the FOMC meeting. No change in monetary policy is expected, however the comments surrounding tariffs and the Middle East conflict will be closely scrutinized. Selling accelerated following the President’s comments that Iran must “unconditionally surrender.” Oil rallied about 4% as did the dollar and Treasuries … Read more
Equites rallied off the headline that Iran wants to restart nuclear talks. The Blomberg headline immediately below read “Isreal denies reports that Iran wants to de-escalate.” The very next headline reads “Iran Ready to deliver major Blow to Isreal” according to a senior Iranian official. What headline is correct? As noted several times the first … Read more
The dollar or Treasury did not rally on Friday following the bombing of Iranian nuclear facilities. Has both lost their “safe haven status,” the result of Washington’s fiscal recklessness? Or was it the result of the inflationary surge in both oil and gold? Equites pared most of their early morning losses, perhaps an indicator of … Read more
Did the world change overnight or were the events just noise? Isreal bombed Iranian nuclear and military installations. The comments are what is to be expected depending upon one’s preconceived bias. As noted many times, no one is objective and those who say they are the most subjective people. Everyone has confirmation bias and in … Read more
Underlying inflation rose in May less than forecast for the fourth month in a row, suggesting companies are largely holding back on passing higher tariff costs through to consumers. The prevailing narrative is that companies massively increased inventories before the tariffs were enacted and firms are now working off these stores, hoping to replenish supplies … Read more
The narrative is beginning to rise about the reliance of a small number of stocks that has underpinned the “V” shape recovery since the tariff induced April swoon. Bloomberg again quantifies the concentration…about 50% of the returns since April is in 10 names and 33% of the gains are from 5 names. The Newswire further … Read more
Yesterday was a relatively quiet day. As widely noted, the April tariff induced equity swoon has been reversed with tech doing almost all of the heavy lifting. According to Bloomberg the “giants” are up about 33% further stating that not all of the “heavy weights” are pulling their fair share. This comment further morphed into … Read more
Last week’s data was not the doom and gloom statistics of the prevailing market narrative. The market narrative is now stating the deterioration in the economy will now start next month. The labor market data is consistent with the solid growth experienced thus far this year. June’s employment gains were greater than expected, however the … Read more
What will today’s jobs data suggest? Following yesterday’s release of weekly jobless claims, which are volatile on a weekly basis, the markets are now anticipating the Fed will lower rates as soon as September, versus October while continuing to fully price in at least one additional cut by year’s end. As widely noted, monetary policy … Read more
Treasury yields declined to the lowest levels in nearly a month following a weaker than expected gauge of job creation and the first contraction in the service sector since last June. The market has priced in higher odds of two quarter point cuts by year end, in October and December. The market also increased a … Read more
