At casual glance many appear exhausted, lacking any conviction. Trading patterns are entirely driven by headlines, not necessarily rational thought. The Treasury market for example. Thursday longer dated Treasuries rallied on concerns around large regional bank credit issues and resurgent trade tensions. The advance stalled Friday as the President made trade comments, comments that stabilized … Read more
Equites slid on the news that two regional banks took a credit charge on the same company, rising concerns about overall credit quality. The charge offs were the result of fraud to loans that invest in distressed commercial mortgages. While the charge offs are relatively insignificant in the scope of things and are believed to … Read more
Equites were mixed in the face of strong earnings from the mega sized financials and the potential of a longer “tariff truce” with China. Treasuries had a decent bid as both Japan and French debt rallied on potential optimism over budget concessions in the respected countries. Gold hovered around record levels on fiscal concerns in … Read more
Perhaps the two largest drivers in today’s market are AI and jobs. Addressing AI, who will be tomorrow’s Yellow Pages, Lucent or Northern Telecom? Lucent and Northern Telecom were formerly must own companies of 25 years ago that went into bankruptcy after the internet bubble popped. And then there are the Yellow Pages which have … Read more
Third quarter earnings season commences next week with Wall Stret lenders including Goldman Sachs and Citicorp releasing results. TSLA is the first of the Magnificent Seven to report on October 22 followed by GOOG, MSFT and META on October 29. Given how lopsided the expectations have become and how lofty valuations are, and the lack … Read more
Will the narrative begin to rise about the shutdown? Some are suggesting October 15 could be a pivotal date as this is when federal paychecks are deposited into one’s account, a deposit that may not occur. October 18 is a rally against the Trump Administration is scheduled. Will these events have any impact? Fiscal cracks … Read more
Will the shutdown influence the two governor races? Some have stated that the race in both NJ and VA could be a bellwether for next year’s mid-terms. As noted, little attention outside of Washington has been given to the shutdown but will this begin to change if the President follows through with his threat of … Read more
At casual glance it appears most are ignoring the government shutdown. While this is the first shuttering since 2018, there has been 21 since 1976. Maybe the impact of such has gone the same way as a dial on a TV. There were ample commercials stating, “don’t touch that dial.” Today many have no idea … Read more
Short-dated Treasury yields fell yesterday as the private sector ADP Employment Survey unexpectedly dropped in September. The market increased the amount of possible Fed easing by year’s end to 46 bps from 42 bps right before the data was released. ADP noted that their data has been “recalibrated” as more information became available from prior … Read more
At the time of this writing a government shutdown is all but assured. As widely discussed, shutdowns are both market and economic nonevents but can create sensationalist headlines. The President has threatened to fire “scores of federal workers” in the event of a shutdown perhaps accomplishing what DOGE did not…a paring of the federal workforce. … Read more
