Equites sank further on Friday and oil hit a four-year low as FRB Chair Powell signaled the damage of a trade war will be bigger than anticipated, with the potential effects including higher inflation and slower growth. Despite his possible ominous warning, Powell reiterated a wait and see approach on rates. Markets, however, have fully … Read more
Will today’s jobs data offer support to the markets? The equity market rout unleashed by the Administration’s tariff gambit has diverted all attention away from perhaps the most significant monthly economic release. Goldman Sach stated that hedge funds have dumped stocks at the greatest rate in 12 years during March, the result of unknown tariff … Read more
Will April 2, 2025 be remembered in a similar fashion as December 7, September 11, October 19 and 28th? Or will it be just another day, just regarded as noise? The initial reaction was one as a non-event. S & P futures were higher immediately following the announcement as it was first interpreted as though … Read more
There is intense volatility within a narrow range in the bond market. Last week, long dated yields were around the highest level since mid-February. Today they are around the lowest since early March. Additionally, the market is now discounting 76 bps of easing. Last week it was less than 45 bps. Are tariffs inflationary? Or … Read more
The Administration is sending mixed messages on what new tariffs will be unveiled tomorrow. Bloomberg writes “what and how they will announce on Wednesday have traders flustered as they try to position around the biggest risk confronting the markets in years.” It is widely believed [and perhaps already discounted] mega capitalized tech may be at … Read more
The final March sentiment Index—the University of Michigan Sentiment Index—indicated that confidence has stumbled to a two-year low and long-term inflation expectations jumped to a 32 year high as anxiety over tariffs continue to build. Consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.1% over the next five to 10 years, the highest … Read more
The quarter is almost over, the worst quarter since 2023, primarily the result of tariff uncertainty. All averages are negative for the year and according to Bloomberg anyone who has put an equal monthly sum into the NASDAQ 100 during the past 15 months is now down. How will this affect sentiment especially if the … Read more
A tariff induced selloff in tech mega caps drove equities lower. Copper surged to a record high as the Administration is threatening a tariff on this key industrial metal for AI. On the other hand, both energy and big banks again rose. A measure of big banks rose for a ninth straight day, the longest … Read more
A measure of consumer confidence fell in March to the lowest level in four years on concerns about higher prices and economic outlook amid the Trump Administration’s escalating tariffs. A measure of expectations for the next six months dropped to the lowest in 12 years. However, a gauge of present conditions was essentially unchanged. The … Read more
Led by the mega techs, equities rallied on signs that tariffs will be more targeted than anticipated. Conversely bond yields rose as did oil. The Administration is increasing pressure on Iran/China as well as proposing a 25% tariff in nations buying crude and gas from Venezuela. As noted, equites advanced on the back of a … Read more
