Will this be a week of significance? The preconceived narrative is that technology has improved growth and productivity. Real GDP has averaged about 2% per year in the past 20 years, about half of its growth rate from 1950-1973 according to First Trust. It’s hard to quantify government success because they don’t have profit motives. … Read more
Markets were mixed as President Trump urged in a virtual speech to Davos for OPEC to lower crude prices and said he will push for interest rates cuts. Trump also reiterated his threat to use tariffs to bring manufacturing back to the US. Every President has advocated for lower oil prices and interest rates however … Read more
Mega cap technologies led equities higher yesterday, the result of NFLX’s profit report. Next Wednesday January 29 three of the Magnificent Seven releases earnings; MSFT, TSLA and META. Was yesterday’s NFLX results a one-off event or the start of something better? The inverse of previous days, most of the companies in the S & P … Read more
Markets were mixed yesterday until the President Trump announced a new investment push into AI.. The NASDAQ rose about 0.5%, the Dow gained about 1.0% and the Treasury yields nominally declined. Many have commented the geopolitical and macroeconomic issues are the most daunting today than in at least two generations. Perhaps the biggest risk is … Read more
The inauguration was yesterday. Sentiment is high that the Trump Administration will be transformative. Now comes the hard part…living up to expectations. As with every Administration, there will be successes and failures. Some policies will be adopted, others not. Some suggest the only comment to make is that bureaucracies have become too powerful; unelected officials … Read more
Equites struggled to find direction even as bond yields dopped and dovish remarks from Fed Governor Christopher Waller. The inverse of many trading sessions of the prior years, the averages languished even as the typical company rose as a slide in the tech mega caps negatively impacted the benchmarks. Solid earnings from a pair mega … Read more
Both the Treasury and equity markets breathed a collective sigh of relief as December’s CPI data largely met expectations, bolstering expectations that the Federal Reserve may be able to lower rates later this year. The core CPI—ex food and energy—increased by 0.2% after rising 0.3% four straight months. From a year ago, it was up … Read more
December’s Producer Prices unexpectedly cooled in December, helped by a drop in food costs and flat service prices. The PPI rose 0.2% from a month earlier. The median estimate called for a 0.4% gain. A measure excluding food and energy was unchanged from November versus expectations of a 0.3% increase. Compared with a year earlier, … Read more
The PPI is released at 8:30. Inflationary pressures are expected to rise from the previous month, an environment that was discussed several months ago given the comparable year ago figures. Every day we are inundated with pictures from the fires in California. The fires are hardly contained. I am amazed that there have not been … Read more
December’s unemployment report was considerably stronger than expected as the economy added the most jobs since March and the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell. The data confirmed that the labor market held up last year despite higher borrowing costs, lingering inflation and political uncertainty. While demand for workers moderated and the unemployment rate rose in 2024, … Read more
