Several times I have opined the greatest risk to the markets is greater growth than anticipated that challenges monetary policy expectations. As widely accepted a major reason for the December rout was growth and the December 21 FOMC statement that Treasury sales were ...
Earnings season commences Friday. Depending upon the source, first quarter profits are expected to decline anywhere between 4.8% and 9%. JP Morgan writes the majority of the declines will be focused in the ...
March’s unemployment data is released at 8:30. In my view the data can confirm or deny the recessionary narrative. As widely discussed February’s statistics were extremely confusing as growth in private sector and non-farm payrolls greatly disappointed while other components of the report...
Yesterday I referenced an UBS report about the lack of liquidity in the bond market under the guise of “it is not what you say but rather why you say it” specifically stating the lack of liquidity is perhaps impacting overall profitability. On Wednesday, UBS announced...
UBS wrote a scathing report about the lack of liquidity in the bond market. The firm used words such as “dysfunctional,” “dizzying” and “apocalyptic” to describe the current environment and ...
A Chicago programmer is going to trial over software he developed that prosecutors say had only one purpose: to manipulate market with bogus orders. Most market manipulation cases are against people who buy and sell securities. This is the first case brought...
It appears the economic landscape is chaotic. The dramatic shift of the Federal Reserve, trade, the use of algorithms, all drive the uncertainty in the markets and geopolitics. There are huge changes in narratives that ...
Treasury prices have been surging. Yields are now around 90 basis points (0.90%) lower than they were about three months ago. In other words, yields have dropped over 33% with the large minority of this decline occurring since the March Fed meeting, the meeting...
We are we going? Three months ago the global consensus view was growth. Three months later, the inverse. According to Bloomberg, since November the global universe of negative yielding debt has surged by 75% to approximately $10 trillion. The apex was ...
The “official” yield curve inverted Friday, defined as the 90 day Treasury yielding more than the 10 year Treasury. This is the first inversion since 2007. The catalyst for this inversion was the Fed’s surprisingly dovish turn amplified by ...