CONSUMER SENTIMENT FELL TO THE LOWEST LEVEL IN A DECADE
Sentiment fell to the lowest level in nearly a decade. The data fell short of all estimates by a wide margin with perhaps the decline in future expectations most ...
16 August, 2021
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CPI AT 8:30
Yesterday I rhetorically asked whether reality will return to the bond market with a vengeance. At the time of this writing the 10-year Treasury is yielding 1.37% up from ...
11 August, 2021
WILL REALITY RETURN TO THE BOND MARKET WITH A VENGEANCE?
Will reality return to the bond market with a vengeance? Almost everyone including FRB Chair Powell is surprised by the two month advance in Treasuries. As widely discussed the ...
10 August, 2021
JULY’S JOBS DATA EXCEEDED ALL EXPECTATIONS
July’s employment data exceeded all estimates. More importantly the previous month’s data was revised higher thus suggesting considerable underlying strength. ...
09 August, 2021
IS THE CHINESE CRACKDOWN ANYTHING OF SIGNIFICANCE?
Is the crackdown in China an event of great significance? Several bulge bracket firms including JP Morgan and Goldman have commented that many Chinese companies may be ...
28 July, 2021
EARNINGS ARE SURPRISING ON THE UPSIDE BUT SO ARE INFLATIONARY COMMENTS
Some have stated the strength of 2Q earnings is surprising. I don’t agree with this statement for the simple reason for the gazillionith consecutive quarter profits have...
22 July, 2021
SOCIAL SECURITY’S COLA IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HIGHEST SINCE 1983
Value and cyclical lead equities higher. Small caps outperformed all indices under the simple reflationary premise....
21 July, 2021
WILL THE 50 DAY MOVING AVERAGE BE VIOLATED?
The indices are on the verge of rolling over. Bloomberg writes for the fifth time this year the S & P 500 has traded to this pivotal support line and in every instance rebounded. Will today be ...
20 July, 2021
WE ARE LIVING IN UNIQUE TIMES
Friday Bloomberg quoted a $2.2 billion Treasury portfolio manager at Wells Fargo with 30 years of experience stating “The Fed has killed the interest rate cycle. I think the Fed determines we are on a ...
19 July, 2021
FRB CHAIR’S TESTIMONY AND BLACKROCK’S COMMENTS
FRB Chair Powell is adamant inflation is “transitory,” that current generational high prints for the inflation statistics are “one and done.” It appears the only group that believes this perspective is the Fed itself and ...
15 July, 2021