The “official” yield curve inverted Friday, defined as the 90 day Treasury yielding more than the 10 year Treasury. This is the first inversion since 2007. The catalyst for this inversion was the Fed’s surprisingly dovish turn amplified by ...

Equities rose on light volume as all focused upon the Fed’s surprise decision. I will continue to argue that unless external risks rise, the central bank will be forced to change its stance in the immediate future. I ask what happens if China’s economy turns...

Wow! That was a surprise. The Federal Reserve was considerably more dovish than anticipated, suggesting no rate hikes for the remainder of 2019 and only one in 2020. As early as yesterday morning, the Fed was perhaps suggesting 2 hikes in 2019....

All are expecting a dovish Fed statement at the conclusion of its two day meeting. Many are perplexed by the lack of wage inflation given the low unemployment rate. Will the Fed address the labor participation rate (LPR) as a primary cause, a...

Equity markets were mixed following a report that a meeting between China and the US to end the trade war is now likely to happen in April at the earliest. Many, including me, believe a trade deal is fully priced into...

Equities were mixed yesterday as the NASDAQ led by the technologies advanced and the Dow fell. Equity volume was muted. Treasury yields were relatively lower and oil rose after Saudi Arabia announced even deeper cuts and Venezuela is...

Equities were mixed yesterday as the NASDAQ led by the technologies advanced and the Dow fell. Equity volume was muted. Treasury yields were relatively lower and oil rose after Saudi Arabia announced even deeper cuts and Venezuela is...

February’s jobs data was surprise. Payrolls rose by the smallest amount in more than a year but prior months were revised higher. Wages rose more than expected rising by the greatest pace in over a decade and the labor participation rate remained unchanged....

Many times I have discussed the labor participation rate (LPR). The LPR is quickly rising in stature as the unemployment rate indicates an economy close to full employment. I have often remarked a major reason for today’s low unemployment rate is result of the large...

Will political uncertainty begin to weigh upon equity prices? The world is dramatically changing. The EU holds elections in May and right of center parties are expected to capture over a third of the seats. France’s President Macron is desperately appealing to...