Twenty five years ago one of the top tier data points was the Leading Index of Economic Indicators (LEI). It was a hard and fast rule that three consecutive declines in the LEI all but assured a recession will occur in the next ...
The German government auctioned 30 year bonds with a coupon of 0.00% at negative yield of 11 basis points. Germany had planned on offering $2 billion in bonds but only $914 million were bought thus the Bundesbank said the auction ...
Relatively speaking the markets were quiet. In some regards it felt as a typical August trading day, the inverse of the last three weeks. Some are suggesting volatility could greatly increase if Friday’s remarks from FRB Chair Powell are less dovish than ...
The markets (and narrative) are absolutely convinced that the current de globalization will produce a recession. The markets (and narrative) are also convinced that the US will follow the global economies, the inverse of ...
Fake news is not a new phenomenon. It has been around since the dawn of mankind using any delivery method to influence the populace. It is often written those who control the media can greatly influence society’s perceptions and ...
Barron’s wrote yesterday US technology firms are and will continue to bear the grunt of the trade war. In my view this is just the acknowledgment of the obvious given the current supply chains and methods of production for ...
The 30-year Treasury is now trading at a record low yield of 2.02%. Bloomberg writes the current unending advance is predicated by “considerable and unrelenting” central bank buying. There is now over $15 trillion of ...
Earlier in the week I commented President Trump controls the trade news cycle, writing all he has to do is tweet and immediately change the narrative. Yesterday markets were going to open on their back foot until the President sent a tweet about ...
In my view the race to bottom regarding asset management fees is adding to market illiquidity. Bloomberg writes there is approximately $8 trillion between ETFs and passive index funds. There is little barrier to entry and hundreds of companies are ...
There is a growing number of analysts who are suggesting the trade war will not end until 2020 because there is no incentive for either the US or Chinese to come an agreement until then. For China they will not likely agree to the ...