Several high profile firms are suggesting the indices may decline between 5% and 15% in the forthcoming months.  Their rationale is as follows.   Great uncertainty emanating from several areas.  First the upcoming Presidential election, a primary season few had remotely suggested would unfold....

Equity markets are still reconciling the April Fed Minutes, Minutes that shocked many into a different reality.  Large cap momentum growth stocks fell about 1%, the dollar advanced and the bond market became paralyzed.  Crude was essentially unchanged on gasoline demand which is at a...

Treasuries fell yesterday on speculation interest rates may rise at least twice this year.  As noted many times, there is a massive disconnect as to what the market thinks the direction of monetary policy will be in 2016 and the direction the Federal Reserve is...

Equities—led by energy—advanced yesterday.  As widely noted long time oil bear Goldman surprised all with its reversal regarding oil stating demand is now higher than input.  It cited numerous reasons including the massive reduction in capital spending outside OPEC, supply disruptions in Nigeria, Libya and...

What gives?  Retail sales climbed in April by the most in 13 months, abruptly ending an early year letdown in spending that cause a first quarter down shift in the economy.  The gains were broad based....

Some have opined the first Friday of each month brings a new chapter of the government chronicalizing the health of the US economy; the BLS Employment Report.  Stock and bond markets respond immediately too it as many—analysts, traders, central bankers—form broad based conclusions, conclusions that...

May’s employment data is released at 8:30.  Consensus is expecting a 4.9% unemployment rate, a 200k and 195k increase in non-farm and private sector payrolls, respectively, a 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings, a 34.5 hour workweek and a 63.0% labor participation rate....

Wow!  Who thought three months ago the Republican nominee would be known before the Democratic nominee?  Three months ago all thought Hillary Clinton would have clinched the nomination by Super Tuesday at the latest.   Four weeks ago the accepted wisdom was a contested Republican convention....

A Fed official stated yesterday an interest rate hike in June is indeed plausible.  The markets are suggesting the odds of such are about the same as that proverbial snowball down under. ...