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NVDA IS THE FIRST $4 TRILLION COMPANY

The markets are around where they were immediately after the election.  Is this poetic justice as there were some who predicted the end of the world as we know it and continued to say the strangest things imaginable are being rebuked to those who swore of certain messianic achievements? On the surface it appeared that … Read more

EQUITIES AND LONGER DATED TREASURIES DECLINED

Equites declined and the dollar rose on a potentially volatile week as US trading partners attempt to finalize deals.  Emerging market currencies slid as the President warned he will add additional tariffs on any country that align with “the anti-American policies of BRICS.” The Administration did signal however that trading partners may have until August … Read more

JOB GROWTH SURPRISED ON THE UPSIDE FOR THE FOURTH CONSECUTIVE MONTH

Job growth exceeded expectations in June for a fourth straight month, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly declined, crushing expectations of a July rate cut.  The chance of a September rate cut was reduced to about 75%. Payrolls increased 147,000 after slight upward revision to the prior two months and compared with a median forecast of … Read more

WELCOME TO THE THIRD QUARTER

Welcome to the second half of 2025.  In less than one calendar quarter, we have seen the perhaps the most insane public policy announcement in years (“Liberation Day”), a massive market collapse from such, a complete policy reversal, a massive market reversal, an Israel-Iran flare-up that appears to have lasted twelve days, an oil spike, … Read more

“THE MOTHER OF BUY ON DIP RALLIES”

Perhaps on the narrowest of rallies from the tariff induced April lows, the narrative is rising that the recent rebound—described as the “mother of buy on dip”—is poised to be tested in the coming weeks.  The President’s 90-day extension on reciprocal tariffs is set to expire on July 9. And then there is “One Big … Read more

A QUIET DAY

FRB Powell’s two-day Congressional testimony has concluded.  No new ground was broken and perhaps the phrase “heightened uncertainty” is an understatement of the current environment.  War in the Middle East could drive oil prices sharply higher and tariffs that are already in place raise the prospect of higher prices for both consumers and businesses. The … Read more

A POWELL AND MIDDLE EAST INSPIRED ADVANCE

Equites advanced on hopes that a de-escalation of the Middle East conflict will prevent a flare up in inflation.  FRB Chair Powell’s Congressional testimony was largely a non-event other than the Fed Chief adding “many paths are possible” for monetary policy.  Markets keyed in on his statement that if inflation pressures remained contained “we will … Read more

ARE MOST IN SOME STAGE OF COMPLACENCY?

Despite ominous headlines, oil prices did not rise on Monday and market fears of the conflict spreading remain low.  Is complacency too great, setting most up for failure or are the events just indeed noise? The Middle East accounts for about a third of global crude production, but there have not been any signs of … Read more