Was yesterday’s selloff a lagged effect from Friday’s jobs data? Both the Treasury and equity markets stumbled on the increased prospect that six years of near zero borrowing costs in the US may end next month. Companies who are a heavily dependent upon trade fell...
I have opined several times growth may be stronger than most expect, further stating wage pressures may begin to surface. I have also written a gazillion times about today’s frightening velocity of change, recently referencing Fed policy during the summer 2008 and making a possible...
At 8:30 the BLS releases November employment statistics. The data has taken a heightened importance given recent comments by the Fed Chair and two Fed governors. Did Yellen, et.al. telegraph to the markets the data may be considerably stronger than anticipated, increasing the odds of...
Several times I have commented about possible emerging strength in the US economy. Fed Chair Yellen made similar remarks yesterday stating “I see the US economy is performing well…domestic spending has been growing at a solid pace.” Yellen further remarked the improving economy “has set...
Whether or not the FOMC decides to raise rates for the first time in December or early next year, I think Treasury yields will climb from current levels as the overnight rate is increased at pace faster than most expect....
Yesterday I wrote global economic conditions are not as dour as the headlines suggest. I typically write the body of these comments the night before, fully aware of the upcoming statistics but not the data itself....
In my view data released to date has indicated the US and global economy held up fairly well in Q3, contrary to the widely held fears of a sharp deceleration. Data is now suggesting third quarter global growth has slipped to 2.5% from 3.1% registered...
Today is the first estimate of third quarter GDP. Analysts are expecting growth to rise by 1.5% versus a 3.9% pace of the second quarter. In quarter’s past, equities have dropped if the data surprised on the upside given rising odds of a change in...
Markets were soft ahead of today’s conclusion of the two day Fed meeting. There is little expectations of any change in monetary policy albeit all will scrutinize the post meeting statement to see how the Committee views Chinese economic developments and how the drop in...
Markets have been sanguine regarding a potential debt ceiling crisis. In my view, it seems more likely than not a deal will be done by November 3rd. But what are the possible implications if the debt ceiling debate once again goes down to the wire?...