There is intense volatility within a narrow range in the bond market. Last week, long dated yields were around the highest level since mid-February. Today they are around the lowest since early March. Additionally, the market is now discounting 76 bps of easing. Last week it was less than 45 bps. Are tariffs inflationary? Or … Read more
The Administration is sending mixed messages on what new tariffs will be unveiled tomorrow. Bloomberg writes “what and how they will announce on Wednesday have traders flustered as they try to position around the biggest risk confronting the markets in years.” It is widely believed [and perhaps already discounted] mega capitalized tech may be at … Read more
The final March sentiment Index—the University of Michigan Sentiment Index—indicated that confidence has stumbled to a two-year low and long-term inflation expectations jumped to a 32 year high as anxiety over tariffs continue to build. Consumers expect prices to rise at an annual rate of 4.1% over the next five to 10 years, the highest … Read more
The quarter is almost over, the worst quarter since 2023, primarily the result of tariff uncertainty. All averages are negative for the year and according to Bloomberg anyone who has put an equal monthly sum into the NASDAQ 100 during the past 15 months is now down. How will this affect sentiment especially if the … Read more
A tariff induced selloff in tech mega caps drove equities lower. Copper surged to a record high as the Administration is threatening a tariff on this key industrial metal for AI. On the other hand, both energy and big banks again rose. A measure of big banks rose for a ninth straight day, the longest … Read more
A measure of consumer confidence fell in March to the lowest level in four years on concerns about higher prices and economic outlook amid the Trump Administration’s escalating tariffs. A measure of expectations for the next six months dropped to the lowest in 12 years. However, a gauge of present conditions was essentially unchanged. The … Read more
Led by the mega techs, equities rallied on signs that tariffs will be more targeted than anticipated. Conversely bond yields rose as did oil. The Administration is increasing pressure on Iran/China as well as proposing a 25% tariff in nations buying crude and gas from Venezuela. As noted, equites advanced on the back of a … Read more
The NASDAQ 100 has declined for five consecutive weeks. The longest such decline since 2022. During this period, there have been some bounces, however each bounce has been met with a successive low, punishing one of the most time-honored investment strategies of buying on the dip. JP Morgan writes retail/individual investors pace of buying during … Read more
Will the narrative begin to rise about the amount of Treasuries the Fed will let roll off its balance sheet? As noted yesterday, the Committee indicated it will let $5 billion roll off its balance sheet versus $25 billion. FRB Chair Powell stated the reason for this course of action was related to federal debt … Read more
As widely expected, Federal Reserve officials held the benchmark interest rate steady for second straight meeting, though they telegraphed expectations for slower economic growth and higher inflation. The Committee also said it would begin slowing the pace at which it is reducing its balance sheet. The decision to hold rates steady comes as the President’s … Read more
