Equities and oil advanced and Treasuries plunged as the odds of a trade deal continue to rise. Bloomberg writes that the 11 basis points rise in the 10-year is a “three sigma” event ...

08 November, 2019

According to Bloomberg 78% of 303 S & P 500 companies that have reported earnings have exceeded expectations. Regarding revenues, 39% beat forecasts and 40% matched. For the quarter earnings are expected to decline by 2.1% YOY, an improvement over the 3.8% expected...

05 November, 2019

Today is the release of the BLS employment survey. The recessionary narrative rose yesterday as the Chicago PMI [manufacturing in the region] posted the lowest reading since 2015. In my view a major reason for this decline is the GM strike and ...

01 November, 2019

The first print of third quarter GDP validated my long held view of today’s recessionary fears are vastly overblown. The economy expanded at a 1.9% annualized rate versus the consensus view of a 1.6% pace. Perhaps the most significant aspect of the report...

31 October, 2019

Equity markets are pricing about a 90% probability the Fed will lower interest rates on Wednesday. In my view the global headwinds that pushed the Bank to cut rates in July and September have abated somewhat ...

29 October, 2019

Many times I have commented about the narrowness of the market. Bloomberg quantified this lack of breadth on Friday. The newswire stated Thursday was the third time this year that the number of decliners was least 400 more than gainers when the NASDAQ...

28 October, 2019

Is a new theme arising? For many years market participants have been rationalizing the valuations of profitless companies. Was We Work the proverbial straw that broke the camel’s back? ...

25 October, 2019

Value trounced growth yesterday, partially the result of earnings. OK, growth has decimated value since at least 2008 and depending upon the source value is trading at the sharpest discount to growth since at least 2000. Some data points go as far back to...

23 October, 2019

Many times I have commented about the lack of liquidity in the markets, the result of regulatory fiat, changes in market trading structures and the massive move to passive investing. ...

22 October, 2019