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PPI and Retail Sales at 8:30

Bloomberg quantified the obvious.  It wrote “inexpensive stocks are historically cheap, trading near their deepest discounts in the past two decades, when inspecting bottom line valuations against metrics like price to EBITA, price to sales and price to productive assets.” 

Anyone who is a value investor already knows this painful point as the performance difference between value and growth is at historical levels.

Many will argue it is the massive influence of passive investing that has created today’s environment.  Recent data suggests over 55% of assets are in passive vehicles where price discovery is not required.  Monies are allocated based upon size where the big get bigger in a rising market. 

Indexing has gone from a strategy to the strategy.

It also suggests in any prolonged selloff, the big may get smaller at a faster rate than its smaller capitalized brethren.

Last week was the worst week in the S & P 500 since October.  As previously noted, eight of the eleven S & P 500 sectors were higher, an anomaly.  Is this a discrepancy a harbinger of things to come given the massive difference between value and growth? 

Moines will ultimately gravitate to the sectors that have the highest potential reward and the least amount of perceived risk. 

Yesterday was a $22 billion 30-year Treasury auction, an auction that was met with “solid” demand as it appears the benchmark was cheapened up enough to elicit interest.  Tuesday’s 10-year auction was met with “lackluster demand” and bond prices declined.

Equites were quietly mixed.  The Dow was up about 0.1% while the NASDAQ declined about 0.6%.

Today the PPI and retail sales are released.  How will the data be received?

Last night the foreign markets were mixed.  London was down 0.07%, Paris up 0.87% and Frankfurt up 0.27%.  China was down 0.18%, Japan up 0.29% and Hang Seng down 0.71%.

Dow and NASADAQ futures are 0.20% and 0.4%, respectively, ahead of the data. The 10-year is off 1/32 to yield 4.19%.

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Kent Engelke

Chief Economic Strategist Managing Director

The views expressed herein are those of Kent Engelke and do not necessarily reflect those of Capitol Securities Management. Any opinions expressed are statements of judgment on this date and are subject to certain risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ materially from those currently anticipated or projected. Any future dividends, interest, yields and event dates listed may be subject to change. An investor cannot invest in an index, and its returns are not indicative of the performance of any specific investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is being provided for informational purposes only. Any information should not be deemed a recommendation to buy, hold or sell any security. Certain information has been obtained from third-party sources we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete. This report is not a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material and does not include all available data necessary for making an investment decision. Prior to making an investment decision, please consult with your financial advisor about your individual situation. Investing involves risk and you may incur a profit or loss regardless of strategy selected. There is no guarantee that the statements, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct. If you would like to unsubscribe from this e-mail distribution, please reply to this e-mail and indicate that you wish to unsubscribe in your response.