Heightened geopolitical worries weighed upon equities. The President stated the US has to “make a meaningful deal” with Iran within the next 10 days. The US is deploying vast forces to the Persian Gulf—the greatest buildup since 2003—to increase the odds of an agreement. Is this an example of Brinkmanship?
Also weighing upon equities was the decision from Blue Owl Capital to restrict withdrawals form one of its private credit funds, spoking fears of greater issues in the $1.8 trillion market.
The decline was relatively broad based as over 375 issues fell
Writing the obvious, oil rose as Iran is threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz.
Today is the release of the first estimate of fourth quarter GDP and its ancillary pricing indices. The economy is expected to expand around a 3% pace after expanding in the prior quarter at the quickest rate in two years.
The data may impact monetary policy expectations. The Minutes from the January FOMC meeting indicated that there were several members who voiced support for an interest rate increase if the economy continues to expand at a pace that generates greater than permitted inflation.
Were these Members stating the obvious or is there a change in tenor at the Committee.
Last night the foreign markets were mixed. London was up 0.48%, Paris up 0.75% and Frankfurt up 0.11%. China was down 1.26%, Japan down 1.12% and Hang Seng down 1.10%.
Futures are flat after the release of the GDP data and ancillary inflation statistics. The economy grew at a 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter after rising 4.4% in the prior quarter. Overall, the economy grew by 2.2% in 2025. According to government statistics, the shutdown subtracted about 1% from growth.
The pricing components indicated that inflation is stuck in the established range, defined as “stubborn inflation pressures that has not declined as many had expected.”
Changing topics and for what it is worth department, Blomberg asks has technology finally lost its grip on the averages? The Newswire writes that over 60% of actively managed fund are outperforming their benchmarks—the highest share since 2007, the result of a struggling technology sector.
As widely noted, the indices led by the massive concentration in technology have greatly outperformed the last five and ten years.
. The 10-year is up 1/32 to yield 4.06%. And then there is the potential tariff ruling. Will the Supreme Court make a ruling today?
