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CAN TODAY BE ONE OF SIGNIFICANCE?

Will today be one of great significance?  The FOMC is expected to lower interest rates by 0.25%.  Most will be paying close attention to the post-meeting statement and outlook.  And then there are the earnings releases of some of the largest companies in the world.  At the close GOOG, MSFT and META post results.  Tomorrow … Read more

CPI WAS LOWER THAN EXPECTED

September’s CPI data all but assured a rate cut at this week’s FOMC meeting.  The statistics also increased the odds of yet another reduction before year’s end and a total of four by June 2026. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2% from August, the slowest pace in three months.  On an annual … Read more

CPI RELEASED AT 8:30

The CPI is expected to be released today even though the government is shutdown.  A limited number of employees were recalled to compute the calculations as they are paramount for the calculations for next year’s social security’s COLA.  Inflation is expected to increase by 0.4% in September.  The core rate is expected to rise by … Read more

HOW ACCURATE ARE OPENAI PROJECTIONS?

Earnings season for the mega sized tech companies commenced yesterday as TSLA reported mixed earnings, sending shares lower by 3.5%. As widely discussed, the mega techs have completely dominated the markets since COVID, if not before.  The attention (hype) around AI is intense. Some mind-numbing data published by Citicorp about AI.  According to the Bank, … Read more

POSSIBILITIES AS TO WHY IS GOLD IS ON AN UNENDING RUN

Gold continued its unending run despite easing trade tensions and the prospect of the government reopening.  Both developments should have dampened the demand for gold.  Why the continued advance? Some have pointed out FOMO, referring to the fear of missing out sentiment.  Others suggest the massive proliferation of gold ETFs creating an unsatiable demand for … Read more

ARE MARKET PARTICIPANTS BECOMING EXHAUSTED?

At casual glance many appear exhausted, lacking any conviction.  Trading patterns are entirely driven by headlines, not necessarily rational thought. The Treasury market for example.  Thursday longer dated Treasuries rallied on concerns around large regional bank credit issues and resurgent trade tensions.   The advance stalled Friday as the President made trade comments, comments that stabilized … Read more

EQUITES REVERSED AN EARLY MORNING GAIN

Equites slid on the news that two regional banks took a credit charge on the same company, rising concerns about overall credit quality.  The charge offs were the result of fraud to loans that invest in distressed commercial mortgages. While the charge offs are relatively insignificant in the scope of things and are believed to … Read more

A MIXED DAY

Equites were mixed in the face of strong earnings from the mega sized financials and the potential of a longer “tariff truce” with China. Treasuries had a decent bid as both Japan and French debt rallied on potential optimism over budget concessions in the respected countries. Gold hovered around record levels on fiscal concerns in … Read more