Led by the NASDAQ, equities rose on the hopes that the UU and China are nearing a trade deal. Cypto, gold and bonds all fell. It is also almost a certainty that the Fed will lower rates by 0.25% on Tuesday. It is the forward looking statements that will be of great interest. Also five … Read more
September’s CPI data all but assured a rate cut at this week’s FOMC meeting. The statistics also increased the odds of yet another reduction before year’s end and a total of four by June 2026. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 0.2% from August, the slowest pace in three months. On an annual … Read more
The CPI is expected to be released today even though the government is shutdown. A limited number of employees were recalled to compute the calculations as they are paramount for the calculations for next year’s social security’s COLA. Inflation is expected to increase by 0.4% in September. The core rate is expected to rise by … Read more
Earnings season for the mega sized tech companies commenced yesterday as TSLA reported mixed earnings, sending shares lower by 3.5%. As widely discussed, the mega techs have completely dominated the markets since COVID, if not before. The attention (hype) around AI is intense. Some mind-numbing data published by Citicorp about AI. According to the Bank, … Read more
Yesterday gold plunged by the most in a dozen years while silver had its biggest drop since 2021. Spot gold fell as much as 6.3% while spot silver dopped up to 8.7% before staging a nominal recovery. Both metals have rallied significantly throughout the year leaving the metals in perceived overbought territory. An issue at … Read more
Gold continued its unending run despite easing trade tensions and the prospect of the government reopening. Both developments should have dampened the demand for gold. Why the continued advance? Some have pointed out FOMO, referring to the fear of missing out sentiment. Others suggest the massive proliferation of gold ETFs creating an unsatiable demand for … Read more
At casual glance many appear exhausted, lacking any conviction. Trading patterns are entirely driven by headlines, not necessarily rational thought. The Treasury market for example. Thursday longer dated Treasuries rallied on concerns around large regional bank credit issues and resurgent trade tensions. The advance stalled Friday as the President made trade comments, comments that stabilized … Read more
Equites slid on the news that two regional banks took a credit charge on the same company, rising concerns about overall credit quality. The charge offs were the result of fraud to loans that invest in distressed commercial mortgages. While the charge offs are relatively insignificant in the scope of things and are believed to … Read more
Equites were mixed in the face of strong earnings from the mega sized financials and the potential of a longer “tariff truce” with China. Treasuries had a decent bid as both Japan and French debt rallied on potential optimism over budget concessions in the respected countries. Gold hovered around record levels on fiscal concerns in … Read more
Perhaps the two largest drivers in today’s market are AI and jobs. Addressing AI, who will be tomorrow’s Yellow Pages, Lucent or Northern Telecom? Lucent and Northern Telecom were formerly must own companies of 25 years ago that went into bankruptcy after the internet bubble popped. And then there are the Yellow Pages which have … Read more
