A measure of consumer confidence fell in March to the lowest level in four years on concerns about higher prices and economic outlook amid the Trump Administration’s escalating tariffs. A measure of expectations for the next six months dropped to the lowest in 12 years. However, a gauge of present conditions was essentially unchanged. The … Read more
Led by the mega techs, equities rallied on signs that tariffs will be more targeted than anticipated. Conversely bond yields rose as did oil. The Administration is increasing pressure on Iran/China as well as proposing a 25% tariff in nations buying crude and gas from Venezuela. As noted, equites advanced on the back of a … Read more
The NASDAQ 100 has declined for five consecutive weeks. The longest such decline since 2022. During this period, there have been some bounces, however each bounce has been met with a successive low, punishing one of the most time-honored investment strategies of buying on the dip. JP Morgan writes retail/individual investors pace of buying during … Read more
Will the narrative begin to rise about the amount of Treasuries the Fed will let roll off its balance sheet? As noted yesterday, the Committee indicated it will let $5 billion roll off its balance sheet versus $25 billion. FRB Chair Powell stated the reason for this course of action was related to federal debt … Read more
As widely expected, Federal Reserve officials held the benchmark interest rate steady for second straight meeting, though they telegraphed expectations for slower economic growth and higher inflation. The Committee also said it would begin slowing the pace at which it is reducing its balance sheet. The decision to hold rates steady comes as the President’s … Read more
The FOMC is expected to hold rates steady today as all attention will be focused upon the Committee’s updated economic projections…aka the dot plot. For now, policymakers have signaled they are in a wait and see mode, seeking further progress on inflation and greater clarity on the economic impact of Trump’s policies, chief amongst them … Read more
Markets were initially bifurcated as a rout in tech mega caps weighed heavily upon some of the indices. Bloomberg writes 90% of the companies in the S & P 500 gained yesterday even as the “Magnificent Seven” at one time sank over 3%, with the cohort ultimately closing about 1.1% lower. Retail sales were released … Read more
At the conclusion of the FOMC meeting, the Committee will update its interest rate forecasts. How will it differ from the one issued in December? Will the Fed acknowledge the uncertainties around inflation from tariffs, where it is still predominantly more bark than bite? Will the Federal Reserve increase the neutral rate from around 2% … Read more
Data showed producer inflation data of 0.0% last month, compared with expectations of a 0.3% increase. Excluding food and energy, the PPI fell 0.1%, the first monthly decrease since July. The core was up 3.4% from a year earlier. However, categories that inform the Fed’s preferred inflation measure—the personal consumption expenditures price index—were largely firmer. … Read more
The narrative is rising about market volatility. In the matter of three weeks, Bloomberg writes the Magnificent Seven has declined about 18% and is down about 14% YTD. At the time of this writing, the NASDAQ 100 is off about 10% YTD and about 13.5% from its late December apex. The S & P 500 … Read more
