MUSING ABOUT A COVID VACCINE AND THE CONVENTION
Perhaps the most imperative question of the day is whether or not a COVID vaccine is at hand. And if so, will it turbo-charge the economic recovery already underway?...
18 August, 2020
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JULY’S RETAIL SALES AND CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DATA
July’s overall retail sales disappointed, rising only by 1.2% vs. the consensus estimate of 2.1%, thus suggesting the rebound is stalling. June’s data however was...
17 August, 2020
WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS UNDER 1 MILLION FOR THE FIRSTTIME SINCE MARCH 13…THE DEFINITION OF “NARRATIVE”
Initial jobless claims again surprised on the downside, falling below 1 million for the first time since March 13. For the week ending August 8 initial jobless claims were 963,000 vs. the ...
14 August, 2020
TECH SHARES AND GOLD ADVANCED
Both technology stocks and gold advanced yesterday. Treasuries fell nominally in price. Inflationary pressures were greater than expected and some are beginning to...
13 August, 2020
GOLD FELL, TREASURY YIELDS ROSE AND VALUE GAINED
The massive rally that pushed gold to record heights about $2,000 an ounce came to a violent end yesterday as the metal had its biggest drop in seven years after ...
12 August, 2020
“TRUTH IS OFTEN THE FIRST VIRTUE LOST IN WAR AND POLITICS”
COVID is a major electoral issue. There is a long-lived axiom of “truth is the first virtue lost in war and politics.” Today it appears that this axiom is on major ...
11 August, 2020
THE JULY LABOR REPORT WAS A POSITIVE SURPRISE
Non-farm payrolls rose by 1.763 million vs. the consensus view of 1.5 million. Private sector jobs rose by 1.462 million vs. the 1.2 million estimate. Prior month revisions were ...
10 August, 2020
JOBS DATA AT 8:30…AND “MAKE BILLIONAIRES PAY ACT”
Today the all-inclusive BLS Employment report is released. The employment data released this week was contradictory. The ADP survey had a large negative miss. Weekly unemployment and ...
07 August, 2020
CONTADICTORY DATA, VACCINE AND STIMULUS
The Private Sector ADP Employment Survey greatly surprised on the downside. Analysts had expected private sector jobs to increase by 1.2 million but instead only...
06 August, 2020
THE WALL OF WORRY, COVID AND EARNINGS
Second quarter GDP declined by a record 32.9%. Analysts had predicted a 35% decline. My thoughts on this nominal positive surprise…big deal. What is the ...
31 July, 2020