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As largely expected the Fed left interest rates unchanged and signaled it would keep them on hold through 2020 amid a solid economy. The vote was unanimous, the first since May. ...

12 December, 2019

It is often written the markets are a microcosm of the myopicy of current perspectives. The issue at hand is to recognize the next myopic dominating view. ...

10 December, 2019

Last year at this juncture the 10-year was yielding around 3.25% and consensus was expecting the 10-year Treasury to broach 4% sometime in 2019 as the Fed continued with its anticipated tightening cycle of an additional 50-75 basis points. In reality the 10-year fell ...

27 November, 2019

The first print of third quarter GDP validated my long held view of today’s recessionary fears are vastly overblown. The economy expanded at a 1.9% annualized rate versus the consensus view of a 1.6% pace. Perhaps the most significant aspect of the report...

31 October, 2019

Equity markets are pricing about a 90% probability the Fed will lower interest rates on Wednesday. In my view the global headwinds that pushed the Bank to cut rates in July and September have abated somewhat ...

29 October, 2019

Value trounced growth yesterday, partially the result of earnings. OK, growth has decimated value since at least 2008 and depending upon the source value is trading at the sharpest discount to growth since at least 2000. Some data points go as far back to...

23 October, 2019

In my view the conversation is intense amongst brokerage professionals who have knowledge about Fed policy as to why the Fed conducting its fourth consecutive repo operation. Before Tuesday, the last time the Fed intervened was ...

20 September, 2019

Life is stranger than fiction. Saudi Arabia says attacks were “unquestionably” sponsored by Iran; an attack that caught all flat footed and was thought impossible. As noted the other day, this is a massive escalation, perhaps on the same level as the Iraqi...

19 September, 2019

Only history knows the ultimate outcome of the drone attacks. What is definitively known is oil instillations are not impregnable. That illusion was shattered just as past illusions of invincibility such as the Great Wall of China and the...

18 September, 2019