Perhaps I should have titled today’s remarks that the markets have never really deviated from normalcy. I have written many times that I believe interest rates are the largest component of valuation (and technology based trading) formulas. Markets today are only reacting in greater fortitude...
Monetary policy makers gave no clear signal that their next move would be a hike or a cut, or that any adjustment should be expected at their next meeting in June. Officials slightly upgraded their assessment of the economy saying “economic activity rose at solid...
Equity markets declined yesterday on mixed earnings. Disappointing results from both Alphabet and Samsung overshadowed stronger than expected profits from GE and Pfizer. Oil rose on Venezuelan unrest, Saudi Arabia signaling a ...
The VIX or a measurement of volatility (aka risk) has plunged. However as measured by other benchmarks, conviction is very low. Volume has been anemic. The CME stated it has become increasingly easy to exaggerate the price movement of almost any security, the...
Several times I have opined the greatest risk to the markets is greater growth than anticipated that challenges monetary policy expectations. As widely accepted a major reason for the December rout was growth and the December 21 FOMC statement that Treasury sales were ...
It appears the economic landscape is chaotic. The dramatic shift of the Federal Reserve, trade, the use of algorithms, all drive the uncertainty in the markets and geopolitics. There are huge changes in narratives that ...
The “official” yield curve inverted Friday, defined as the 90 day Treasury yielding more than the 10 year Treasury. This is the first inversion since 2007. The catalyst for this inversion was the Fed’s surprisingly dovish turn amplified by ...
Equities rose on light volume as all focused upon the Fed’s surprise decision. I will continue to argue that unless external risks rise, the central bank will be forced to change its stance in the immediate future. I ask what happens if China’s economy turns...
All are expecting a dovish Fed statement at the conclusion of its two day meeting. Many are perplexed by the lack of wage inflation given the low unemployment rate. Will the Fed address the labor participation rate (LPR) as a primary cause, a...
Equity markets were mixed following a report that a meeting between China and the US to end the trade war is now likely to happen in April at the earliest. Many, including me, believe a trade deal is fully priced into...